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What's happening to the Medicare trust fund?

Most of those who watch Medicare finances agree that the larger problem right now is how much money is being collected for the trust fund. That money largely comes from the 1.45% payroll tax paid by employees and employers. With so many people out of work because of pandemic-related shutdowns, cash flowing in has dropped dramatically.

Is Medicare Part A running out of funds?

According to a 2020 report by the Trump administration, the Medicare Trust Fund, also known as the Hospital Insurance Trust Fund, is running out of funds. Starting in 2026, Medicare Part A will only be able to pay for 90% percentage of the costs.

When will the Medicare trust fund run dry?

One Medicare Trust Fund May Run Dry By As Early As 2022, Analysts Warn : Shots - Health News With millions of people out of work because of the coronavirus pandemic, fewer payroll taxes are coming in to help keep Medicare's trust fund intact. Funding is shrinking for Medicare's Part A trust fund, which pays for hospitalization and in-patient care.

When will the part a trust fund run out of money?

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonpartisan group of budget experts focused on fiscal policy, estimates that the pandemic will cause the Part A trust fund to be unable to pay all of its bills starting in late 2023 or early 2024. "But we're still very close," said Marc Goldwein, the group's senior vice president.

How long will the Medicare trust fund last?

2026A report from Medicare's trustees in April 2020 estimated that the program's Part A trust fund, which subsidizes hospital and other inpatient care, would begin to run out of money in 2026. At the time, the trustees cautioned that their calculations did not include the potential impact of COVID-19.

What happens when Medicare trust fund runs out?

It will have money to pay for health care. Instead, it is projected to become insolvent. Insolvency means that Medicare may not have the funds to pay 100% of its expenses. Insolvency can sometimes lead to bankruptcy, but in the case of Medicare, Congress is likely to intervene and acquire the necessary funding.

Is the Medicare trust fund running out?

Medicare's insurance trust fund that pays hospitals is expected to run out of money in 2026, the same projection as last year, according to a new report from Medicare's board of trustees.

What happens when Medicare runs out in 2026?

The trust fund for Medicare Part A will be able to pay full benefits until 2026 before reserves will be depleted. That's the same year as predicted in 2020, according to a summary of the trustees 2021 report, which was released on Tuesday.

Is Medicare about to collapse?

At its current pace, Medicare will go bankrupt in 2026 (the same as last year's projection) and the Social Security Trust Funds for old-aged benefits and disability benefits will become exhausted by 2034.

Is Medicare financially stable?

Currently, Medicare's actuaries estimate that there will be sufficient funds available to pay for hospital insurance benefits in full until 2028 (Figure 1). At that point, Medicare will be able to cover 87% of costs covered under Part A through payroll tax revenues—but the Medicare program will not cease to operate.

What will happen to Medicare in the future?

After a 9 percent increase from 2021 to 2022, enrollment in the Medicare Advantage (MA) program is expected to surpass 50 percent of the eligible Medicare population within the next year. At its current rate of growth, MA is on track to reach 69 percent of the Medicare population by the end of 2030.

When will Medicare run out of money?

In April, Medicare's trustees reported that the Part A trust fund, which pays for hospital and other inpatient care, would start to run out of money in 2026. That is the same as the projection in 2019. But the trustees cautioned at the time that their projections did not include the impact of COVID-19 on the trust fund.

How does a trust fund get into trouble?

There are two ways the trust fund can get into trouble: Either the money flowing in is too little, or the payments going out for care are too much. Most of those who watch Medicare finances agree that the larger problem right now is how much money is being collected for the trust fund.

What does it mean when a trust fund is insolvent?

Insolvent means the Trust Fund would still have money flowing in, but not enough to pay for all the care Medicare patients will consume. Most budget experts think that Medicare would reimburse hospitals and other Part A providers 100% of their claims until the fund literally runs out of money, and then would pay claims only as more money flows in.

How much money was given to hospitals in the Cares Act?

At least $60 billion of the funding provided as part of the CARES Act to help hospitals weather the pandemic came not from the general treasury, but from the Trust Fund itself. That money in " accelerated and advance payments " is supposed to be paid back, via a reduction in future payments.

Where does Medicare funding come from?

The funding largely comes from a 1.45% payroll tax paid by employees and employers. Funding is shrinking for Medicare's Part A trust fund, which pays for hospitalization and in-patient care. The funding largely comes from a 1.45% payroll tax paid by employees and employers. Everyone involved even tangentially in health care today is consumed by ...

When will the Part A fund be unable to pay its bills?

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonpartisan group of budget experts focused on fiscal policy, estimates that the pandemic will cause the Part A trust fund to be unable to pay all of its bills starting in late 2023 or early 2024.

Is Medicare Part B insolvent?

(Medicare Part B, which pays physicians and other outpatient costs, is funded by beneficiary premiums and general tax funding, so it cannot technically become insolvent.)

When will the HI trust fund be depleted?

To give a recent example of how such factors play into solvency projections, in January 2020, prior to the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, CBO projected that the HI trust fund would be depleted in 2025.

How many years has the HI trust fund been depleted?

In the 30 years prior to 2021, the HI trust fund has come within five years of depletion only twice – in 1996 and again in 1997 (Figure 4). At that time, Congress enacted legislation to reduce Medicare spending obligations to improve the fiscal outlook of the trust fund.

How is Medicare solvency measured?

Medicare solvency is measured by the level of assets in the Part A trust fund. In years when annual income to the trust fund exceeds benefits spending, the asset level increases, and when annual spending exceeds income, the asset level decreases. This matters because when spending exceeds income and the assets are fully depleted, ...

How much would Medicare increase over 75 years?

Over a longer 75-year timeframe, the Medicare Trustees estimated that it would take an increase of 0.76% of taxable payroll over the 75-year period, or a 16% reduction in benefits each year over the next 75 years, to bring the HI trust fund into balance.

How much of Medicare will be covered in 2026?

Based on data from Medicare’s actuaries, in 2026, Medicare will be able to cover 94% of Part A benefits spending with revenues plus the small amount of assets remaining at the beginning of the year, and just under 90% with revenues alone in 2027 through 2029.

Where does Medicare get its money from?

Funding for Medicare comes primarily from general revenues, payroll tax revenues, and premiums paid by beneficiaries (Figure 1). Other sources include taxes on Social Security benefits, payments from states, and interest. The different parts of Medicare are funded in varying ways.

How much of the federal budget is Medicare?

Medicare spending often plays a major role in federal health policy and budget discussions, since it accounts for 21% of national health care spending and 12% of the federal budget. Recent attention has focused on one specific measure of Medicare’s financial condition – the solvency of the Medicare Hospital Insurance (HI) trust fund, ...

Christopher Holt

Christopher Holt is the Director of Health Care Policy at the American Action Forum.

Christopher Holt

Christopher Holt is the Director of Health Care Policy at the American Action Forum.