Medicare Blog

“how social security and medicare affect retirement behavior in a world of incomplete markets

by Mrs. Maddison Halvorson II Published 1 year ago Updated 1 year ago
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What is Social Security and how does it impact a person's retirement?

Social Security replaces a percentage of a worker's pre-retirement income based on your lifetime earnings. The amount of your average wages that Social Security retirement benefits replaces varies depending on your earnings and when you choose to start benefits.

How does Social Security affect the economy?

Social Security benefits amounted to 5 percent of GDP in 2016. By 2035, Social Security benefits in current law are projected to be 6.1 percent of GDP. That is an increase of 1.1 percentage points over the current cost of the program.

What is the problem facing Social Security and Medicare?

Social Security and Medicare are funded primarily through the collection of payroll taxes. Because of demographic and economic factors, including higher retirement rates and lower birth rates, there will be fewer workers per beneficiary over the long term, worsening the strain on the trust funds.

Does Social Security increase affect future retirees?

New beneficiaries coming onto Social Security's rolls tend to have, on average, higher benefits than those leaving, so average benefits normally rise from month to month. This gradual rise in average benefits is altered by abrupt increases due to annual cost-of-living adjustments or COLAs.

How would a decrease in Social Security benefits to retired persons affect the economy?

If Social Security payments were reduced by only five percent, the nation's economic output would decrease by $63 billion, 419,000 jobs would be lost and tax revenues would decrease by $7.8 billion.

How did Social Security encourage economic growth?

The Social Security trust fund reduced the unified budget deficit when the Boomers were working and the trust fund was growing, and will increase the deficit as the Boomers retire and the trust fund shrinks.

What is the major problem with Social Security?

Social Security has a long-known basic math problem: more money will be going out than coming in. Roughly 10,000 baby boomers are retiring each day, with insufficient numbers of younger people entering the work force to pay into the system and support them. And life expectancy is increasing.

What are some challenges with Social Security?

These are: reducing improper payments; improving the disability determination process; and protecting the integrity of the enumeration process—the process by which Social Security numbers are issued and protected during the life of the number holder and beyond. I will touch very briefly on each of these challenges.

What are the challenges that Social Security faces?

One of the biggest problems facing Social Security is a demographic shift -- namely the retirement of baby boomers. Between 2010 and 2030 we're liable to see more than 70 million baby boomers enter retirement, which means a big surge in the number of eligible beneficiaries.

Do Social Security benefits increase with inflation?

More from Personal Finance: A subset of that data, called the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W, that is used to calculate the Social Security cost-of-living adjustment each year, climbed 9.3% over the last 12 months.

Do Social Security benefits before retirement age adjust for inflation?

Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance ( OASDI , Social Security) benefits are indexed for inflation to protect beneficiaries from the loss of purchasing power implied by inflation.

Does Social Security keep up with inflation?

With COLAs, Social Security and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) benefits keep pace with inflation. The latest COLA is 5.9 percent for Social Security benefits and SSI payments. Social Security benefits will increase by 5.9 percent beginning with the December 2021 benefits, which are payable in January 2022.

Abstract

This paper provides an empirical analysis of how the U.S. Social Security and Medicare insurance system affects the labor supply of older males in the presence of incomplete markets for loans, annuities, and health insurance.

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What is gradual retirement?

Gradual retirement involves leaving full-time employment for part-time employment, either with the same employer or another employer. This paper examines the determinants of the gradual retirement decisions of older workers. The paper uses panel data from the PSID and a random-effects ordered-logit model. The results indicate that older individuals, Blacks, and individuals with higher non-labor income are more likely to engage in gradual or full retirement. They also indicate that married individuals, college graduates, and those who are in good health are less likely to either gradually or fully retire. The 60s are the time most people engage in gradual retirement.

Is the Korean pension system aging?

The Republic of Korea faces a rapidly aging population that is more reliant on public pension support but pension contributions are insufficient to support its long-term obligations. As a result, there is a growing debate on what type of reforms to the current defined-pension system could balance the long-term funding of the system with insuring benefit levels for old and new beneficiaries. In this paper, we develop and estimate a dynamic behavioral model that captures essential elements of the National Pension Service (NPS) and behavioral responses in labor supply, savings and benefit claiming to changes in the public pension system using a nationally-representative sample of married couples nearing retirement from the Korean Longitudinal Study of Aging (KLoSA). We use the model estimates to evaluate the effect of counterfactual policy experiments such as contribution rate increases and the extension of normal retirement age on the decision to work or not work, savings and benefit claiming among individuals near retirement. While these policies are aimed at shoring up the NPS, our model demonstrates that changes to the contribution rate could discourage work and savings in married households near retirement. In particular, a 2 percentage point immediate increase in the contribution rate would reduce household savings by 2 percent among poor households, and also reduce labor participation among wives by 3 percent and among husbands by less than a percent. When we simulate the same increase in the contribution rate in even increments over five years, households anticipate the policy change and increase their savings to compensate for the future fall in income, dissipating undesirable behavioral responses such as decreased work and savings. In contrast, an increase of 2 years in the normal retirement age leads to a 3 percent increase in household savings, and to an increase both male and female labor force participation (less than 1 percent and 3 percent respectively). These finding suggest policy design, such as phase-in periods, can be leveraged to minimize undesirable behavioral responses of households near retirement. Despite their potential detrimental effects in labor supply and savings, findings from a benefit-cost analysis suggest that behavioral responses to an increase in contribution rates are an order of magnitude smaller than the revenue benefits to the pension’s finances.

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